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Is Cyprus on the Brink of a Conflict between Israel and Hezbollah?

Is Cyprus on the Brink of a Conflict between Israel and Hezbollah?

Hassan Nasrallah, the head of Hezbollah, threatened to strike Cyprus if it supported Israel’s operation on lebanon

On June 19, Cyprus received a warning from Hezbollah’s strongman, Hassan Nasrallah, that it would be targeted if it assisted Israel in attacking Lebanon.

Israel’s foreign minister has stated that an announcement regarding Israel’s impending entry into the war is forthcoming, and the army has authorized an offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon.

This happened after Hezbollah professed to have broadcast film captured over the Israeli city of Haifa by one of its drones, demonstrating its capacity to sneak deep into Israeli territory and implying a danger.

What would happen to Cyprus if Israel declared war on Lebanon? That’s all there is to it:

Does Cyprus support Israel’s invasion of Lebanon?

Cyprus has historically permitted Israel to conduct air drills over its airspace, but never during an actual battle, and it doesn’t appear like Cyprus will start doing so now.

Cyprus declared that it would stay neutral and stay out of any war following Nasrallah’s threat.

Nonetheless, the UK uses its bases in Cyprus to carry out military activities in the area.

It is believed that the UK attacked the Houthis in Yemen using those facilities. It has also apparently been stated that Israel has armed itself in its battle on south Lebanon and Gaza.

Political scientist Imad Salamey of the Lebanese American University warned that Hezbollah could see Cyprus’s proclamation of neutrality as a strategic victory.

Read This – Gaza Chief’s Brutal Calculation: Civilian Bloodshed Will Benefit Hamas

“This answer… sends an implicit message from the EU that it is unwilling to support a military campaign by Israel.

According to Salamey, “it strengthens Hezbollah’s deterrent posture and contributes to a wider international refrain from endorsing possible Israeli military actions.”

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What actions by Hezbollah might concern Cyprus?

It could, for starters, carry out its threat to strike Israeli targets in Cyprus. Or, to be more precise, that is the scenario that Hizbu’llah: Politics and Religion author Amal Saad explained to Al Jazeera.

According to Saad, an attack “would… be devastating for Cyprus’s economy.” “I believe opposition politicians in Cyprus have previously protested about this, highlighting the policy’s dangers to the country’s economy and security in allowing its territory to be used in a conflict,” Saad continued.

Other observers doubt Hezbollah’s ability to strike Cyprus because of the potential regional ramifications.

“To be honest, aside from disruption and clandestine operations, I’m not sure what they can do. Hezbollah is aware that attacking Cyprus will enlist the support of the EU and NATO, according to Maha Yahya, the head of the research tank Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center.

Did Nasrallah say this to scare Cyprus?

Even if Hezbollah doesn’t carry out its threats against Cyprus, Nasrallah’s vehement speech might have some benefit.

According to Karim Emile Bitar, an associate professor of international relations at Saint Joseph University in Beirut, this speech is part of a psychological war and aims to send a clear message to Hezbollah’s adversaries that any Israeli attempt to widen the scope of the war and attack Lebanon would have major repercussions on all western allies of Israel – particularly regional allies.

Salamey went on to say that the EU might put pressure on Israel to refrain from escalating the conflict with Lebanon as a result of Hezbollah’s psychological warfare.

Cyprus’s position suggests that Israel’s allies are hesitant, which could cause Israel to reevaluate the dangers and repercussions of a larger war.Salamey

Related – Israel and Hezbollah Are Moving Closer to Full-Scale War

“Israel’s fragility is highlighted by its international isolation and the absence of clear objectives for military engagement in Lebanon.”

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What other concerns might Cyprus have?

Even if the island nation remains out of any hostilities, the government of Cyprus would be worried about a potential stream of refugees—Syrians and Lebanese living in Lebanon—to its borders.

Nikos Christodoulides, the president of Cyprus voiced concern in April on the rise in Syrian refugees arriving on the island’s shores from Lebanon in an attempt to obtain asylum.

We are concerned about refugees, as is the European Union, which just announced that it would give Lebanon financial support totaling more than $1 billion. The primary purpose of the funds is to counteract undocumented immigration.

Source

aljazeera.com

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